Gartner reveals five social software predictions for 2010 and beyond

"The growing use of platforms, such as Twitter and Facebook, by business users has resulted in serious enterprise dialogue about procuring social software platforms for the business" observes Mark Gilbert, research vice president at Gartner. For him, success in social software and collaboration will be "characterised by a concerted and collaborative effort between IT and the business". And hence Gartner's characteristic top five predictions. First, by 2014 social networking services will replace email as the primary vehicle for communications for fully 20% of business users, says Gilbert. Greater availability of social networking services, both inside and outside the firewall, coupled with changing demographics and work styles, will be the causes. Second, by 2012, over 50% of businesses will use 'activity streams' that include microblogging – although stand-alone enterprise microblogging will have less than 5% penetration, says Gartner. Gilbert makes the point that, while Twitter is popular, it has the benefit of massive scale. So, although companies might like the idea of microblogging functionality (with more control and security features) to share quick insights, and keep up with what colleagues are doing, it's unlikely to run. Third, between now and 2012, more than 70% of IT-dominated social media initiatives will fail, warns Gilbert. He suggests that, when it comes to collaboration, IT organisations are accustomed to providing a technology platform, rather than delivering a social solution that targets specific business value. As a result, "IT organisations will struggle with shifting from providing a platform to delivering a solution". Gartner advises that organisations need to develop new skill sets around designing and delivering social media solutions. Fourth, within five years, 70% of collaboration and communications applications designed on PCs will be modelled after user lessons from smartphone applications. Gilbert suggests that, as industry moves toward three billion phones globally serving communications and collaboration anytime anywhere, end users will increasingly dismiss PC applications, "many of which are derivatives of decades-old platforms based on the PBX". And finally, through 2015, only 25% of companies will routinely utilise social network analysis to improve performance and productivity. Gartner warns that before undertaking a social network analysis, any company should ensure that it has the buy-in of the people it hopes to include. "Issues of privacy and confidentiality must be addressed and a determination needs to be made regarding how the information will be used and communicated," warns the analyst.