For years manufacturing experts have been warning about the decline in talent and lack of workforce entering the sector.
However, recent data provided by The ONS may provide a more positive outlook on the manufacturing landscape than previously anticipated.
The data suggests that over the past three years, job vacancies have, in fact, declined.
From April-June 2020, job vacancies sat at their lowest in over two decades at 24,000. However, the ONS data shows that vacancies almost quadrupled in March-May 2022, reaching 95,000.
March-May represented the highest job vacancies in the sector since 2001. Since then, however, the number of job vacancies have slowly been stagnating.
Just six months later, the job vacancies dropped down 10,000, sitting at 85,000. In November-January 2024, the number fell further to 67,000 and almost a year later in January-March 2025, the number of vacancies fell to 52,000.
The data may suggest that more roles are slowly being filled in the manufacturing sector. The negative correlation provided in the graph (see A) also suggests that the number of vacancies may continue to decline - meaning more roles will be filled.
However, the statistics fail to show the causes as to this decline into job vacancies – with factors such as economic slowdown and growing use of automation reliance has meant that job roles are actually no longer available or are being replaced.
This means that the employment gap in the manufacturing sector is still present - there are just little-to-no jobs available to workers to apply for.
So, what was the cause for this job vacancies spike in 2022 and why has it slowly digressed now? And what potentially is in store for the manufacturing sector?
Causes for these trends
There were a multitude of factors that have contributed to the vacancy spike in 2022 and the growing decline since.
The post-pandemic economic rebound was a leading factor. The pandemic initially caused a level of stagnation due to various lockdowns in place. Once lockdowns were over, the economy, as well as the manufacturing sector, experienced a sharp recovery, according to a KPMG report.
This recovery meant that demand for products surged as businesses tried to fulfil backlogged orders and meet renewed customer demands. This led to increased labour demand so greater job vacancies.
Brexit also resulted in labour shortages with the end of the free movement provided by the EU meant that the labour pool grew larger, according to a report by the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, in collaboration with ReWAGE.
Jobs such as haulage drivers, which were previously taken up by European workers, have seen the industry lose a huge portion of its workforce because new immigration rules, introduced as a result of Brexit, have made it more difficult for EU citizens to remain and work in the UK.
This mismatch between labour demand and supply led to record-high vacancies.
The reason for current declining vacancies in the sector is due to economic slowdown and reduced demand.
In the UK, inflation has been rising, alongside increased interest rates, growing National Insurance on businesses and global trade tensions heightened by the Ukraine war and Trump Tariffs, according to a KPMG report.
These economic factors have dampened both domestic and international demand for UK-manufactured goods – with growing contraction in the sector, as mentioned in a report by Make UK.
The sector has also struggled with the persistent labour shortages and the rising wages pressures, with minimum wage now £12.21 per hour for over 21 year olds. This has led to manufacturers investing in automation, digital technologies and AI to reduce the need for new hires and accelerate productivity.
This has meant that less manufacturing jobs are advertised or on the market.
Finally, after the pandemic, the supply chains began to normalise reducing the need for reactive hire surges.
At first glance, the statistics suggest a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector with vacancies slowly being filled.
The reality, however, is that the pandemic offered a great opportunity for more jobs and employment to rise in the manufacturing world. But now instability has entered back into a sector, leading to a decline in jobs, talent and, therefore, in productivity in the industry.
Lightcast has predicted that the industry needs to create 32,000 new jobs from 2022-2027 - with a focus on recruiting younger talent.
Therefore, experts say to create more vacancies, there needs to be a shift in the industry’s focus on automation and globalisation reliance. The UK needs to shift more of its focus on educating and empowering workers.
Industry response to declining job vacancies
The manufacturing sector is not only seeing a decline in job vacancies being filled because of a lack of jobs available – the industry has seen a strong decline of individuals entering the sector to begin with.
The decline is due to factors such as an ageing workforce, skills mismatch and reduced interest rates amongst young people to join this sector.
Experts have stressed the severity of the situation – saying if more jobs are not created than the UK economy will continue to suffer.
Stephen Phipson, CEO of Make UK, said: “Manufacturers are facing a perfect storm of rising employment taxes, global trade headwinds, and domestic cost pressures. Without urgent government support—similar to that provided during the COVID pandemic, such as VAT and National Insurance holidays—the situation will deteriorate quickly.”
Ben Jones, Economist at the Confederation of British Industry said: “Manufacturers remain pessimistic due to cost pressures, anticipated order declines, and global economic uncertainty. Financial challenges and diminished confidence have led manufacturers to reduce investments and employment.”
But is it really all doom and gloom?
A positive future?
The industry is beginning to act. Make UK has launched its Industrial Strategy and Skills Commission which outlined that all the revenue from the Growth and Skills levy should be guaranteed for skills investment - including the £800m the Treasury spent elsewhere.
The Commission also says that the Apprenticeship Levy needs a restructuring, gender disparity needs to be tackled and reinforcing more UTC projects.
Other initiatives have also been placed including the UK Government's injection of £4.5bn in 2023 into key manufacturing sectors, including automotive, aerospace and clean energy.
The Made Smarter Programme is set to expand to all English regions by 2025-2026. And in June 2025, the government is preparing to release a comprehensive industrial strategy, focusing on eight high-growth sectors, including advanced manufacturing, to tackle the skills shortage.
These initiatives have the potential to push more people into the sector and create more job vacancies for people to apply for.
One thing is for certain amongst industry leaders – to tackle this crisis there must be a great focus on prioritising the manufacturing sector as a whole and see it as the vital component it is to British society.
“The lack of a modern, long-term, robust industrial strategy is the UK’s economic Achilles heel. Every other major economy... has a long-term national industrial plan... If we were to achieve this ambition, over time it would add around one hundred and fifty billion pounds to our economy,” said Phipson.
