Manufacturing PMI rises to seven-month high

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The growth rate of the UK manufacturing sector continued to strengthen at the start of 2015, leading to further job creation. Companies benefited from solid inflows of new business from the domestic market, which offset lower new export order volumes, according to the latest Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI rose to a seven-month high of 54.1 in February, up from 53.1 in January.

However, price pressures remained with both average input costs and selling prices falling during the latest survey month.

By posting above 50.0, the PMI extended its run above the critical mark that separates expansion from contraction to two years. February saw the rate of expansion in manufacturing production accelerate for the third month running to its highest since June 2014.

Growth was led by the consumer goods industry, although solid expansions in output were also registered at intermediate and investment goods producers.

Manufacturers reported a further improvement in new order inflows during February, underpinned by rising volumes of new business from domestic based clients. In contrast, export performance deteriorated for the fourth time in the past five months, reflecting subdued conditions in key markets and the sterling exchange rate.

February data signalled an increase in UK manufacturing employment for the 22nd successive month. Moreover, the rate of jobs growth accelerated to a three-month high and was broadly in line with the average for the current sequence of expansion.

Companies reported that the ongoing upturn in the sector had encouraged further job creation, with workforce numbers rising at SMEs and large-sized firms alike. The sharp decrease in oil prices earlier in the year continued to filter through to manufacturers' input costs during February.

Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, said: "Today's PMI confirms that the UK manufacturing sector has seen a positive start to the year with accelerating activity raising hopes that output and employment growth will continue in 2015.

"The trends are particularly positive for consumer goods sectors, suggesting that the boost to demand resulting from the drop in the oil price is good news for many manufacturers. However, the PMI also confirms the challenges facing some manufacturers in the oil and gas supply chain – this chimes with our own quarterly findings which show that the impact is particularly evident in order books in the North West and North East regions.

"The persistent weakness in the export component is disappointing but, with small signs of improvement in activity in parts of Europe, a turnaround could be on the horizon."

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said: "The UK manufacturing sector is reviving in early 2015 after the slowdown seen late last year, as growth rates of both production and new orders continued to strengthen in February.

"Output is now rising at a quarterly pace close to 0.5% and job creation is running at a rate of 5,000 new positions filled per month. This reinforces the picture of a broader growth revival in the UK so far in the opening quarter."

He added: "Scratching beneath the surface and we see a lopsided upturn, with the prime driver being a strong upsurge in new orders and production at consumer goods producers while a near-stalling of demand for plant and machinery points to ongoing weak business investment. Separately, the appreciation of sterling is holding back the progress of UK exporters."