Sluggish exports continue to drag on manufacturing, says CBI

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A fall in export demand slowed the recovery in the UK's manufacturing sector in June, although output growth and total orders are still above their long-run averages. The CBI's latest Industrial Trends Survey shows export orders slipped back following two months of improvement.

Meanwhile, output growth improved again in the three months to June and is expected to strengthen gently over the quarter ahead. Growth still remains below rates reached in late 2013 and early 2014.

Although total order books remained above average, they continued to deteriorate, reaching a 23 month low.

Competitive pressures remained intense in the sector. Over the next three months, manufacturers expect the greatest fall in prices since 2009.

Rain Newton-Smith (pictured), CBI director of economics, said: "Output and overall orders are still doing better than average but hopes that export demand would start to drive forward have not yet been fulfilled.

"Improving momentum in the Eurozone is being offset by the effect of the strengthening pound on UK manufacturers' overseas sales and margins. On top of that, the ongoing Greek saga is causing uncertainty.

"In the Budget next month, the Government should look to provide struggling exporters with support to help break into key markets."

Key findings in the survey include 25% of firms said their export order books were below normal, 9% said they were above, giving a rounded balance of -17%. This is the lowest since March when it was -26%. Around a quarter of respondents (26%) said total order books were below normal, 19% said they were above, giving a balance of -7% which is, by a narrow margin, the lowest since July 2013 when the balance was -12%.

Asked about output volumes over the past three months. 35% said they had risen, 22% said they had fallen, producing a balance of +13%. This is the highest since February, when it was +17%. Over the next three months, 33% expect output volumes to rise, 17% to fall, giving a similar balance of +16%.

Tom Lawton, head of manufacturing at accountant BDO LLP, said: "There is a lot of discussion about how exports may transform UK manufacturing and the UK economy more broadly, so it is disappointing to see surveys such as the CBI's indicating that exports are proving difficult to achieve.

"However, this should come as no surprise. In an increasingly competitive global market and one which is gravitating increasingly towards OEM's and supply chains based in new, more local geographies, UK manufacturers will have to work very hard, and be very well supported by government initiatives, to significantly increase exports. I have doubts that enough is being done to provide the guidance and support necessary to enable a significant boost to exporting from UK mid-market manufacturers."